Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for North Dakota

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for North Dakota in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for North Dakota in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 75.0% for North Dakota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.7) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (0.05).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.3346 4.36%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.7077 -2.18%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1000 -1.55%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0615 -0.48%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0192 -1.15%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0577 0.47%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0577 -1.35%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.4308 3.71%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0923 0.46%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0346 -0.41%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.7308 -9.18%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1038 -1.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0385 0.38%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0385 -0.30%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0077 0.13%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.4346 8.54%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0385 0.49%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.1385 -2.51%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0346 1.00%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.1808 -0.55%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.1231 -1.16%
Low Income 0.0081 0.6654 0.54%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0462 -0.25%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1692 2.62%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0154 -0.28%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.7654 14.46%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0577 0.09%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0654 -0.10%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0154 0.21%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.4423 2.74%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0077 -0.04%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0038 -0.01%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0462 0.20%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.8500 1.87%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 73.0000 -1.34%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0625 13.29%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0645 5.55%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0629 1.19%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0151 -8.05%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0567 -27.59%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.0826 31.05%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2404 19.80%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1091 -9.73%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0279 12.63%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0541 11.98%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0244 1.66%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,616 for North Dakota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 35937) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-29321).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.3218 -$914
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.6980 -$602
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.0990 -$311
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0594 -$314
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0149 -$90
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0545 $13
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0644 -$284
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.4406 -$1,024
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0842 -$227
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0297 $207
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.7277 $263
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1139 $94
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0198 -$26
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0446 $251
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0099 $40
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0000 $0
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.4653 $449
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0396 $143
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.1337 -$132
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0198 -$27
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.1733 -$766
Single Parent 145.7630 0.1287 $19
Low Income -332.4067 0.6832 -$227
Homeless -446.4262 0.0396 -$18
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1584 $319
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0099 -$19
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.7822 $632
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 5994.8000 $2,190
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0446 $90
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.0743 $51
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0149 -$38
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.4604 $420
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0050 $1
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0495 $42
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.8515 -$175
Median Days in Program 3.2489 81.5000 $265
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0625 $1,503
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0645 $2,084
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0629 $2,469
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0151 -$728
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0567 $231
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.0826 $7,994
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2404 $13,501
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1091 $6,290
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0279 $300
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0541 $2,145
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0244 -$149

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 57.4% for North Dakota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 7.334) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.76).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.4054 -14.65%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.7252 37.84%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1171 -0.82%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0405 -4.04%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0090 2.63%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0495 -7.16%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0270 5.76%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.4234 -24.01%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.1036 8.83%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0360 7.12%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.5631 -6.86%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1486 -2.74%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0495 0.36%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0676 -5.77%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0811 -1.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0090 1.66%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.5450 19.88%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0856 -2.61%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.1351 -3.53%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0135 0.34%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.1081 9.52%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.1081 2.31%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1667 13.01%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.7703 -0.10%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0991 0.65%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0090 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.4955 -6.42%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0045 0.22%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0225 -0.64%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.6622 4.85%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 97.5000 3.46%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 47.5000 -1.16%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.3288 -0.29%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0625 62.58%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0645 57.56%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0629 76.30%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0151 -66.19%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0567 179.87%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.0826 62.60%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2404 238.68%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1091 28.16%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0279 91.69%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0541 -0.77%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0244 -33.07%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 78.8% for North Dakota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.681) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.469).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.4333 2.58%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4000 0.76%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.4333 -0.73%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.0333 0.35%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0667 -1.27%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.3000 -1.08%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0333 -0.65%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4667 -1.21%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1667 -3.24%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0667 -1.20%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0333 -0.30%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.2667 -3.86%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.2333 2.48%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0000 0.00%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0333 -0.18%
Veteran 0.0056 0.1667 0.09%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0667 -1.68%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.1000 0.45%
Low Income -0.0518 0.4000 -2.07%
Homeless 0.0306 0.1333 0.41%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.1000 3.77%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0667 -1.52%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.9000 10.18%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1000 0.57%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.6333 1.32%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.1000 0.74%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.3667 1.82%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 1.0000 -5.12%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 119.5000 0.10%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0625 -12.64%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0645 -3.01%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0629 -10.74%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0151 -14.95%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0567 -35.58%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.0826 -29.77%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2404 -47.95%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1091 -31.11%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0279 8.49%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0541 6.65%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0244 1.00%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $10,103 for North Dakota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 30035) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-19932).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4615 -$878
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.3462 $386
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.4615 -$58
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.0385 -$82
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0769 -$192
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0000 $0
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0000 $0
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.3462 -$532
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0000 $0
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0385 -$143
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4231 -$592
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1923 -$366
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0769 $6
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0385 $59
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.2692 $315
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0000 $0
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.2692 $458
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0000 $0
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0385 $11
Veteran 1445.8344 0.1538 $222
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0769 -$229
Single Parent -784.4348 0.1154 -$91
Low Income -538.7097 0.3846 -$207
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0769 $607
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0769 $139
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0385 $7
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8846 $19
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 9198.0000 $843
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0769 $104
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.6923 $48
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.1154 -$288
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.4231 $75
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 1.0000 -$403
Median Days in Program 2.2222 153.0000 $340
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0625 -$1,702
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0645 $2,363
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0629 $2,970
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0151 -$3,930
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0567 $4,870
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.0826 $7,851
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2404 $12,301
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1091 $4,797
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0279 -$127
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0541 $1,205
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0244 -$141

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 29.1% for North Dakota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.348) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.057).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.3729 -5.63%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.6102 -4.00%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2712 6.55%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0847 3.88%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0339 3.10%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.1186 -3.91%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0508 13.46%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0508 0.26%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.2881 -5.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1525 -3.64%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0339 -0.88%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1017 2.67%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.4068 -4.57%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0169 -0.72%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.2203 -0.47%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0508 -1.34%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.1017 -14.73%
Veteran -0.9235 0.1695 -15.65%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0169 0.63%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0508 2.39%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.9322 2.67%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0678 2.63%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0678 2.41%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.3559 -2.19%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0169 -0.74%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.7797 -7.51%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 315.5000 -10.14%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 305.0000 -8.34%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.1017 1.65%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0625 -50.49%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0645 28.69%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0629 62.02%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0151 -88.65%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0567 69.16%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.0826 132.66%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2404 172.20%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1091 16.49%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0279 182.20%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0541 -15.41%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0244 -26.41%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 77.5% for North Dakota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.199) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.974).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5314 3.16%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0171 0.21%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.1486 -2.13%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3657 -7.51%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1886 0.20%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0800 -0.50%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0229 0.45%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.2000 -0.83%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0057 -0.31%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.1086 -3.63%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0800 1.21%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.5371 3.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0229 -0.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0171 1.97%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0057 0.28%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.3200 8.79%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1829 0.65%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.5829 -2.73%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0629 -0.87%
Low Income 0.0375 0.8571 3.21%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0514 -1.03%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1943 1.23%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0571 -0.06%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2114 -1.51%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.3829 1.34%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0743 -0.64%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0171 -0.07%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.5143 2.27%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0229 0.17%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0286 -0.10%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0171 0.06%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.0857 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.8171 1.21%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 122.5000 -0.49%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0625 -42.41%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0645 -12.12%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0629 -8.56%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0151 -11.02%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0567 -12.11%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.0826 -21.12%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2404 0.59%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1091 -4.30%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0279 -30.11%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0541 17.85%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0244 -3.63%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $4,631 for North Dakota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 13387) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-8757).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5606 -$1,052.53
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0076 -$0.70
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1136 -$148.76
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3712 -$395.89
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2045 $132.85
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.0758 $144.96
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0227 $14.77
Race: Black -886.3703 0.2348 -$208.16
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0000 $0.00
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0758 -$13.98
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0530 $49.48
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.5682 $786.33
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0227 -$18.82
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0227 $3.93
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0076 $50.55
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.3636 $223.19
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1515 $82.76
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.5379 -$266.35
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0682 $167.48
Low Income -305.7985 0.8333 -$254.83
Homeless 983.9044 0.0530 $52.18
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.1970 -$253.04
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0530 $53.55
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2424 $207.15
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.4091 -$115.97
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0758 -$47.75
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0076 -$3.50
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.5455 $87.91
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0000 $0.00
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0227 -$37.70
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0379 -$20.44
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0152 $1.58
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.0833 -$0.36
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.8258 -$23.02
Median Days in Program 0.5942 123.0000 $73.09
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0625 -$198.20
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0645 $708.83
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0629 $1,356.82
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0151 -$837.55
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0567 $2,540.40
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.0826 $1,174.86
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2404 $4,897.31
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1091 $773.16
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0279 $1,590.76
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0541 $2,357.09
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0244 -$246.19

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 45.6% for North Dakota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.653) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.197).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.4388 -12.10%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0612 -4.96%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.2041 -18.42%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.4133 -28.92%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1633 -26.78%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.0816 -0.14%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0204 -0.03%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.0816 0.03%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.1531 -2.42%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0459 9.06%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.4235 -11.40%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0306 3.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0051 -0.33%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0204 3.88%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.3776 0.83%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.6429 12.70%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0102 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.4184 -2.98%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0051 0.14%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0357 1.98%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0102 -0.90%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.5867 -2.95%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 161.0000 -5.25%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.2041 -7.02%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0625 47.66%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0645 61.73%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0629 36.70%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0151 -64.65%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0567 -80.76%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.0826 119.62%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2404 169.80%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1091 68.71%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0279 141.82%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0541 -39.71%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0244 -2.85%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 68.8% for North Dakota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.285) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.597).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4069 3.26%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4980 5.41%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1946 -1.67%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0898 -0.06%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0873 -0.55%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0475 1.10%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0121 -0.29%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.1419 -2.28%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0031 0.30%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0912 -2.79%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0204 0.50%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4148 -0.71%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.2113 0.82%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0611 -0.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0846 2.96%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1290 -8.73%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0296 -1.55%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.3785 3.27%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0470 -0.42%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0606 -2.15%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0864 1.87%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0239 0.48%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0879 0.81%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0161 -0.11%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0326 0.60%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0037 -0.09%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.6862 21.78%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0248 -0.38%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.2676 -1.03%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0104 -0.09%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0039 0.43%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0035 -0.20%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 25.0000 -0.69%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0625 10.53%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0645 9.94%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0629 6.37%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0151 -0.69%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0567 16.81%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.0826 7.79%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2404 30.84%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1091 6.46%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0279 10.88%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0541 9.20%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0244 0.84%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,129 for North Dakota for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 38478) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-31349).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.3968 -$1,101
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.5054 $772
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2041 $46
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0891 $154
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0770 $307
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0504 $76
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0135 -$17
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.1614 -$472
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0031 -$8
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0796 -$443
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0185 $198
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4128 -$728
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.2094 -$456
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0647 -$141
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0910 $191
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1305 $10
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0278 -$139
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.3855 $176
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0414 -$48
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0533 -$272
Veteran -913.8967 0.0855 -$78
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0000 $0
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0262 $17
Low Income 634.4633 0.0861 $55
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0142 -$50
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0293 $56
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0033 -$35
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8556 -$188
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 7965.4200 $2,080
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0196 $15
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.3085 $140
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0120 $3
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0038 $41
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0040 $7
Median Days in Program 0.8717 26.0000 $23
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0625 $2,315
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0645 $2,757
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0629 $3,002
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0151 $171
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0567 $3,550
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.0826 $5,609
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2404 $12,378
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1091 $4,692
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0279 $1,161
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0541 $2,778
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0244 -$124

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x